As round one application deadlines approach, business schools both here and abroad are bracing for a surge in application volume. Recent reports in the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and Asia Inc reveal what we’ve long known to be true: When business goes south, business school looks like a better and better idea.
“It’s a very predictable and reliable pattern,” Stacey Kole, deputy dean for the full-time MBA program at the University of Chicago’s Graduate School of Business, told the Times. “When there’s a go-go economy, fewer people decide to go back to school. When things go south, the opportunity cost of leaving work is lower.” And for workers who find themselves laid off, the decision is made easier still.
Official application tallies aren’t yet available since deadlines for the first round of admissions still loom at many schools. But early reports indicate that final numbers will be high.
According to the Journal report, New York University’s Stern School of Business has seen a 20 percent increase in attendance at off-site information sessions this year, Northwestern’s Kellogg School of Management is reporting a 22 percent increase in applications so far, and the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business has seen campus visits by prospective students double.
As always, registration volume for the Graduate Management Admission Test (GMAT) provides an early indicator of application volume as well. According to the Graduate Management Admission Council, which administers the test, registrations for the test through the end of September were 11.6 percent higher than in the comparable period of 2007.
In Europe, the same trends are playing out. “Actually, applications to MBA programmes at IE Business school this year have grown over 15 percent and diversity – the number of countries represented – has also increased,” Santiago Iniguez, dean of Instituto de Empresa Business School in Madrid, told Asia Inc last month. “In fact, the number of U.S. students expected for IE’s MBA programme starting this fall will increase over 20 percent,” he continued.
Still, not everyone sees a direct correlation between a sagging economy and a surge in application volume. Others rightly point out that uncertainty about what the job market will look like upon graduation could deter some from applying. And for some students, the credit crisis may make getting loans to cover the cost of business school more difficult.
Derrick Bolton, director of MBA admissions at the Stanford Graduate School of Business, told the Times that he sees very little correlation between a Wall Street bust and an application boom. According to Bolton, application numbers at his school remained “pretty standard” even after some of Wall Street’s greatest declines, such as the market crash of 1987.
For those in good jobs now, meanwhile, the risk of leaving to go to school may seem too great, according to Peter Johnson, executive director of admissions for the full-time MBA program at the University of California Berkeley’s Hass School of Business. “If you are in a good position and you are not confident of how the picture is going to look two years from now, you may stay in that position,” he told the Journal.
And then there’s the issue of student loans, which have become harder to get due to the widespread credit crunch. According to Mark Kantrowitz, publisher of FinAid.org, 144 education lenders have suspended private and federal loans. But Kantrowitz says business school students should not be impacted as greatly.
“Graduate student loans are the most profitable [for lenders] because the loan balances are the highest,” he told the Journal.
Stefan Szymanski, associate dean of MBA programs at London’s Cass Business School said much the same thing in an article on topmba.com. “Banks are consistently willing to lend to MBAs because they know they’ll get their money back,” he writes. “And yes, even though the banks have stopped lending to almost everybody else, they seem happy to maintain their loan schemes right now – and they wouldn’t be doing that unless they saw an MBA as a sure-fire economic proposition.”
