In a recent blog post, Dean Robert Bruner of the University of Virginia’s Darden School of Business encouraged current and prospective MBA students to hold fast to their long-term career goals even as the U.S. financial crisis continues to make headlines.
“The future of this crisis will be like the present, only longer,” writes Bruner, paraphrasing a Woody Allen quote. Put another way, Bruner doesn’t know when it will end and he doesn’t think anyone else does either. “However, based on an understanding of previous financial crises, I don’t think that we are close to the inflection point at which the good times resume,” he writes.
What do previous financial crises have to teach us? According to Bruner, the key thing to keep in mind is that crises are systemic. “Trouble breaks out somewhere and spreads rapidly because of complexity in markets and the absence of adequate shock absorbers,” he writes. “The trouble stops when there are no more losses to be taken, mainly because there are no more assets or institutions at risk (that is, the worst have been dissolved and the others have the capacity to withstand the crisis).”
Having said that, studies of recent crises show that they are growing more complex than crises of the past. Citing research by Richard Bookstaber and Paul Blustein, Bruner suggests that this greater complexity – which results from the instruments, institutions and trading strategies in today’s markets – has diminished our ability to make sound assessments. The only safe assumption, Bruner posits, is that this crisis will not be brief.
So, what’s an MBA student – or prospective MBA student – to do? Stay the course, says Bruner. “My advice to MBA students and applicants is still to pursue your long-term career vision,” he says.
Maybe in the short term you should be a little less picky about employment offerings, he suggests, even take on some missionary selling to show what you’re made of. But the World Bank forecasts 5.1 percent GNP growth by 2009, made possible by the converging forces of technological and demographic change and trade and market liberalization. “The odds seem strong that a new graduate from a top MBA school will face reasonably good demand for his or her skills over the long run,” Bruner concludes.
Hmmm. Maybe that’s why GMAT registrations continue to climb… (Registration volume for 2007 was up 12 percent over 2006.) Good luck with those applications and interviews!
