Volume appears to be down in ‘Round 2′ at nearly all of the top schools. When combined with the ‘Round 1′ declines, this brings a couple of interesting questions to mind:
1) Will the chances of admission be slightly better than usual in the typically feared ‘Round 3′?
As long as we keep in mind the fact that we are still talking about the very best schools in the nation (and generally slim odds to begin with), the short answer is yes. This is true for a couple of reasons. First, if volume is down as much as 25%, schools will inevitably admit a greater percentage of ‘Round 3′ applicants than in past years (assuming they maintain class sizes). Second, and perhaps more importantly, if volume is down and the schools failed to adjust their admissions tactics in ‘Round 1′, they may be forced to use rounds 2 and 3 to ensure that they fill their classes. Again, this will all happen at the margins, but it is important to note.
2) Why is volume down in the first place? Now is arguably a great time to enter business school, since the forecasts seem to point towards increased economic activity over the next couple of years (e.g. more jobs for graduates).
Let’s look at a few of the popular theories with regards to MBA admissions trends:
-Some people say that MBA admissions volume mirrors financial markets (this argument doesn’t seem to hold much water given the high volume in both 2000 and 2001).
-Others point out that admissions volume is counter-cyclical to the markets (certainly a possibility, but the late 90′s weren’t really ‘lean’ years in the MBA admissions world).
-Recently, there has been talk of the business scandals casting a shadow on the degree itself, tarnishing the MBA (especially when compared with the JD and MD options that young people may be considering). This is interesting, but seems unlikely to have caused such a dramatic drop – at least not one that would be seen in the admissions pool as of yet (since students choosing the JD or MD paths typically do so right after college).
-Finally, there is also the current global uncertainty with regards to international affairs. Are fewer international students applying? Are students opting to stay in secure posts rather than risk testing the job market again after an MBA?
Unfortunately, the answer is probably not reached by any of these common theories. In fact, at Clear Admit, we’re partial to a different theory, that we call the ‘market-lag’ theory (application volume follows financial markets but with a significant lag). While there may be a hint of the ‘international uncertainty’ theory lowering MBA application volume from overseas, the market-lag theory is likely to be the driving force in the recent declines seen by top schools.
